Prop 43 — Limits Voters' Ability To Raise Revenues For Local Government Services — Outstanding Ballot Estimates

Based on data as of 2026-11-07

Projection method

Remaining ballots are projected with a poll-calibrated demographic model: each candidate's support rate by demographic is applied to the estimated remaining-ballot pool — which is sized from the official CA SOS unprocessed count where available and otherwise falls back to the selected voter universe — then scaled by each county's contest participation so projected vote counts reflect undervotes. Projected shares are the reliable signal; projected counts sit below projected turnout by the undervote. Coverage cases (A/B/C/D) reflect the PRET demographic data available per county. Switch the dashboard's Recent trend option to project remaining ballots by each county's recent counting momentum instead of the demographic model.

Projected Finals (SOS Outstanding Ballots)

pool: 3,134,692 · full breakdown →

7,370,170

56.8% ± 1.2

+1,701,031 est.

Yes

5,598,828

43.2% ± 1.2

+1,288,890 est.

Projected margin No +13.7 ± 1.7 pts · lead exceeds band · ~90% interval

County	Outstanding	% Counted	No(SOS · blend)	Yes	Method
San Diego	403,544	68.7%	652,378	579,198	Weights
Riverside	355,152	57.3%	402,124	394,396	Weights
Sacramento	241,111	59.9%	324,961	237,085	Weights
Santa Clara	216,968	66.9%	357,153	268,370	Weights
Los Angeles	179,924	94.4%	1,925,312	1,100,867	Weights
Orange	167,920	85.7%	535,582	571,653	Weights
Alameda	148,090	74.5%	384,042	169,872	Weights
Ventura	145,391	60.6%	189,527	166,812	Weights
Kern	120,264	53.4%	123,846	134,389	Weights
Fresno	102,776	61.9%	128,786	128,325	Weights
Sonoma	102,033	51.4%	128,054	72,589	PRET full
San Mateo	100,000	64.2%	160,349	101,806	Weights
Contra Costa	69,550	84.6%	262,717	168,354	Weights
Marin	62,770	52.6%	80,167	43,074	PRET full
Santa Barbara	61,745	61.9%	93,491	62,519	Weights
Stanislaus	59,887	62.7%	73,950	79,413	Weights
Placer	59,706	70.4%	85,128	107,166	Weights
Tulare	55,133	58.7%	61,256	68,108	Weights
San Luis Obispo	54,407	59.6%	64,691	63,821	Weights
San Joaquin	44,185	79.1%	105,477	96,098	Weights
San Bernardino	34,158	94.3%	301,305	272,568	Weights
Napa	30,546	44.4%	32,496	20,130	PRET full
Monterey	28,122	78.1%	78,016	44,808	Weights
Shasta	26,047	59.2%	25,127	36,572	Weights
Yolo	24,639	69.7%	51,076	26,305	Weights
Merced	24,548	67.1%	37,982	32,461	Weights
Humboldt	24,463	50.9%	30,494	17,275	PRET partial
Butte	20,269	74.6%	36,895	39,550	Weights
Santa Cruz	18,266	84.5%	77,656	33,422	Weights
Madera	17,837	62.4%	20,898	24,863	Weights
Sutter	16,130	50.7%	13,527	17,561	Weights
Nevada	15,300	71.5%	27,699	24,023	Weights
Mendocino	14,749	54.4%	20,009	10,791	PRET full
El Dorado	14,677	84.6%	37,033	53,190	Weights
Lake	14,167	35.4%	11,718	9,192	PRET full
San Francisco	13,050	96.2%	207,828	111,737	Weights
San Benito	10,381	55.7%	12,692	10,088	Weights
Imperial	10,239	73.8%	21,122	16,421	Weights
Solano	10,153	93.5%	90,426	58,752	Weights
Tehama	4,106	80.7%	8,131	12,156	Weights
Glenn	3,537	61.3%	3,255	5,540	Weights
Kings	1,780	94.9%	15,525	18,105	Weights
Yuba	1,494	93.9%	10,055	13,181	Weights
Del Norte	1,366	83.9%	3,883	4,217	Weights
Siskiyou	902	94.8%	7,599	8,875	Weights
Modoc	766	76.2%	1,197	1,862	Weights
Colusa	747	85.5%	2,355	2,539	Weights
Calaveras	342	98.4%	8,365	12,158	Weights
Lassen	289	96.8%	3,015	5,647	Weights
Trinity	233	95.1%	2,401	2,096	Weights
Mariposa	197	97.5%	3,316	4,308	Weights
Tuolumne	193	99.2%	9,573	13,162	Weights
Inyo	153	98.0%	3,678	3,390	Weights
Mono	145	97.2%	2,817	2,008	Weights
Plumas	125	98.5%	3,729	4,265	Weights
Alpine	19	96.8%	336	210	Weights
Sierra	1	99.9%	629	822	Weights
Amador	0	100.0%	7,321	10,663	Weights