Prop 43 — Limits Voters' Ability To Raise Revenues For Local Government Services — Head to Head
Based on data as of 2026-11-07 · General mode
1st vs 2nd
No favoredNo
56.8%
5,669,139 votes now
→ 56.8% proj · 7,370,170
vs
Yes
43.2%
4,309,938 votes now
→ 43.2% proj · 5,598,828
Current gap
1,359,201 votes
Projected remaining
2,989,921 votes
Yes must net
+45.5% of remaining
Recent-trend net (model)
-15.8%
Projected margin
No +13.7 ± 1.7 pts
Falling short: in the projection Yes nets -13.8% of the remaining vote (-412,141), below the +45.5% needed — 1,771,342 votes short.
What the count added · to Nov 7, 5:53 PM PT
| Window | Votes | No | Yes | Yes net |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Latest update1 county | 78,208 | 57.9% | 42.1% | -12,386-15.8% |
| Last hour3 counties | 138,744 | 55.9% | 44.1% | -16,408-11.8% |
| Last 24 hours13 counties | 530,294 | 63.8% | 36.2% | -146,526-27.6% |
| All counted | 9,979,077 | 56.8% | 43.2% | -1,359,201-13.6% |
Net share is Yes's votes minus No's, as a share of the window's votes. Green when it meets the +45.5% Yes needs on the remaining vote.
Path to catch up
What Yes needs from the remaining vote to overtake No.
Yes trails by 1,359,201; nets -412,141 from the remaining vote in the projection — short by 1,771,342 votes. Allocated below — one county is at the most it can give (Yes winning all of its remaining vote), so the rest falls to the others.
Allocate byby remaining x headroom to 70% (Yes's best county, 65%, plus 5 pts)
| County | Est. remaining | Proj. net (Yes) | Req. add’l votes | Req. add’l margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego | 403,544 | -48,363 | +199,143 | +49.3 pts |
| Riverside | 355,152 | -11,139 | +160,392 | +45.2 pts |
| Sacramento | 241,111 | -43,868 | +146,807 | +60.9 pts |
| Los Angeles | 179,924 | -61,573 | +137,446 | +76.4 pts |
| Santa Clara | 216,968 | -33,938 | +132,193 | +60.9 pts |
| Alameda | 148,090 | -62,543 | +130,048 | +87.8 pts |
| Sonoma | 102,033 | -26,947 | +79,040 | +77.5 pts |
| Ventura | 145,391 | -11,064 | +75,817 | +52.1 pts |
| San Mateo | 100,000 | -23,337 | +69,802 | +69.8 pts |
| Orange | 167,920 | -5,091 | +68,974 | +41.1 pts |
| Marin | 62,770 | -17,593 | +50,377 | +80.3 pts |
| Kern | 120,264 | +4,910 | +49,749 | +41.4 pts |
| Contra Costa | 69,550 | -17,191 | +48,753 | +70.1 pts |
| Fresno | 102,776 | -176 | +47,499 | +46.2 pts |
| Santa Barbara | 61,745 | -11,799 | +42,357 | +68.6 pts |
| San Luis Obispo | 54,407 | +647 | +26,260 | +48.3 pts |
| Stanislaus | 59,887 | +2,040 | +25,128 | +42.0 pts |
| San Joaquin | 44,185 | -4,245 | +21,949 | +49.7 pts |
| Monterey | 28,122 | -7,883 | +21,385 | +76.0 pts |
| Tulare | 55,133 | +939 | +20,480 | +37.1 pts |
| Napa | 30,546 | -8,081 | +20,434 | +66.9 pts |
| Yolo | 24,639 | -7,600 | +20,260 | +82.2 pts |
| Humboldt | 24,463 | -6,484 | +18,959 | +77.5 pts |
| Placer | 59,706 | +4,877 | +18,864 | +31.6 pts |
| San Bernardino | 34,158 | -3,106 | +17,558 | +51.4 pts |
| Santa Cruz | 18,266 | -7,325 | +16,579 | +90.8 pts |
| Merced | 24,548 | -2,341 | +13,174 | +53.7 pts |
| Mendocino | 14,749 | -4,202 | +11,809 | +80.1 pts |
| San Francisco | 13,050 | -4,245 | +10,440 | +80.0 pts |
| Butte | 20,269 | +674 | +8,525 | +42.1 pts |
| Lake | 14,167 | -1,632 | +8,466 | +59.8 pts |
| Nevada | 15,300 | -1,141 | +8,233 | +53.8 pts |
| Solano | 10,153 | -2,528 | +7,086 | +69.8 pts |
| Madera | 17,837 | +1,490 | +6,449 | +36.2 pts |
| Imperial | 10,239 | -1,716 | +5,967 | +58.3 pts |
| San Benito | 10,381 | -1,343 | +5,951 | +57.3 pts |
| Shasta | 26,047 | +3,886 | +5,855 | +22.5 pts |
| Sutter | 16,130 | +1,673 | +4,673 | +29.0 pts |
| El Dorado | 14,677 | +2,745 | +3,818 | +26.0 pts |
| Tehama | 4,106 | +777 | +962 | +23.4 pts |
| Kings | 1,780 | +132 | +664 | +37.3 pts |
| Glenn | 3,537 | +884 | +582 | +16.5 pts |
| Del Norte | 1,366 | +95 | +574 | +42.0 pts |
| Yuba | 1,494 | +160 | +456 | +30.5 pts |
| Siskiyou | 902 | +78 | +336 | +37.3 pts |
| Colusa | 747 | +27 | +312 | +41.7 pts |
| Modoc | 766 | +158 | +163 | +21.3 pts |
| Trinity | 233 | -16 | +125 | +53.7 pts |
| Mono | 145 | -22 | +94 | +65.1 pts |
| Calaveras | 342 | +64 | +86 | +25.0 pts |
| Inyo | 153 | -6 | +77 | +50.6 pts |
| Mariposa | 197 | +25 | +61 | +31.2 pts |
| Tuolumne | 193 | +32 | +54 | +28.1 pts |
| Plumas | 125 | +8 | +48 | +38.4 pts |
| Lassen | 289 | +79 | +33 | +11.4 pts |
| Alpine | 19 | -4 | +14 | +72.3 pts |
| Sierra | 1 | +1 | +0all remaining | +0.0 pts |
Proj. net is the projection's split of each county's remaining vote, as in the projected totals; the required lift is what Yes needs beyond it. Scenario, not a forecast — the lift depends on the movability assumption. All counties with remaining vote; scroll and sort by any column.
Where the remaining vote is
Counties with remaining ballots, with the current and blend-projected vote margin (leader − challenger) for each matchup. A negative margin in a high-remaining county is where the trailing candidate can gain. Click any column to sort.
| County | Est. remaining | No–Yes | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Now | Proj. | ||
| San Diego | 403,544 | +24,817 | +73,180 |
| Riverside | 355,152 | -3,411 | +7,728 |
| Sacramento | 241,111 | +44,008 | +87,876 |
| Santa Clara | 216,968 | +54,845 | +88,783 |
| Los Angeles | 179,924 | +762,872 | +824,445 |
| Orange | 167,920 | -41,162 | -36,071 |
| Alameda | 148,090 | +151,627 | +214,170 |
| Ventura | 145,391 | +11,651 | +22,715 |
| Kern | 120,264 | -5,633 | -10,543 |
| Fresno | 102,776 | +285 | +461 |
| Sonoma | 102,033 | +28,518 | +55,465 |
| San Mateo | 100,000 | +35,206 | +58,543 |
| Contra Costa | 69,550 | +77,172 | +94,363 |
| Marin | 62,770 | +19,500 | +37,093 |
| Santa Barbara | 61,745 | +19,173 | +30,972 |
| Stanislaus | 59,887 | -3,423 | -5,463 |
| Placer | 59,706 | -17,161 | -22,038 |
| Tulare | 55,133 | -5,913 | -6,852 |
| San Luis Obispo | 54,407 | +1,517 | +870 |
| San Joaquin | 44,185 | +5,134 | +9,379 |
| San Bernardino | 34,158 | +25,631 | +28,737 |
| Napa | 30,546 | +4,285 | +12,366 |
| Monterey | 28,122 | +25,325 | +33,208 |
| Shasta | 26,047 | -7,559 | -11,445 |
| Yolo | 24,639 | +17,171 | +24,771 |
| Merced | 24,548 | +3,180 | +5,521 |
| Humboldt | 24,463 | +6,735 | +13,219 |
| Butte | 20,269 | -1,981 | -2,655 |
| Santa Cruz | 18,266 | +36,909 | +44,234 |
| Madera | 17,837 | -2,475 | -3,965 |
| Sutter | 16,130 | -2,361 | -4,034 |
| Nevada | 15,300 | +2,535 | +3,676 |
| Mendocino | 14,749 | +5,016 | +9,218 |
| El Dorado | 14,677 | -13,412 | -16,157 |
| Lake | 14,167 | +894 | +2,526 |
| San Francisco | 13,050 | +91,846 | +96,091 |
| San Benito | 10,381 | +1,261 | +2,604 |
| Imperial | 10,239 | +2,985 | +4,701 |
| Solano | 10,153 | +29,146 | +31,674 |
| Tehama | 4,106 | -3,248 | -4,025 |
| Glenn | 3,537 | -1,401 | -2,285 |
| Kings | 1,780 | -2,448 | -2,580 |
| Yuba | 1,494 | -2,966 | -3,126 |
| Del Norte | 1,366 | -239 | -334 |
| Siskiyou | 902 | -1,198 | -1,276 |
| Modoc | 766 | -507 | -665 |
| Colusa | 747 | -157 | -184 |
| Calaveras | 342 | -3,729 | -3,793 |
| Lassen | 289 | -2,553 | -2,632 |
| Trinity | 233 | +289 | +305 |
| Mariposa | 197 | -967 | -992 |
| Tuolumne | 193 | -3,557 | -3,589 |
| Inyo | 153 | +282 | +288 |
| Mono | 145 | +787 | +809 |
| Plumas | 125 | -528 | -536 |
| Alpine | 19 | +122 | +126 |
| Sierra | 1 | -192 | -193 |
County updates
Each county release, newest first: where it was read, the votes it added and each side's share of them. A county's first row is its first release; negative votes are a correction.
| Time (PT) | County | Source | Votes added | No | Yes | Went to |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7, 5:53 PM | San Bernardino | LiveVoterTurnout | 78,208 | 57.9%45,297 | 42.1%32,911 | No +15.8 |
| Nov 7, 5:47 PM | Yuba | SOS | 10,883 | 44.7%4,862 | 55.3%6,021 | Yes +10.6 |
| Nov 7, 5:01 PM | Orange | LiveVoterTurnout | 49,653 | 55.2%27,417 | 44.8%22,236 | No +10.4 |
| Nov 7, 4:53 PM | Santa Clara | Clarity | 36,653 | 58.0%21,241 | 42.0%15,412 | No +15.9 |
| Nov 7, 4:43 PM | Los Angeles | LAVote | 162,983 | 70.7%115,194 | 29.3%47,789 | No +41.4 |
| Nov 7, 4:31 PM | Riverside | LiveVoterTurnout | 26,835 | 52.5%14,080 | 47.5%12,755 | No +4.9 |
| Nov 7, 4:05 PM | Santa Cruz | County site | 10,186 | 72.3%7,361 | 27.7%2,825 | No +44.5 |
| Nov 7, 4:01 PM | San Francisco | County site | 22,503 | 68.7%15,454 | 31.3%7,049 | No +37.4 |
| Nov 6, 11:46 PM | Yuba | SOS | 2,311 | 45.9%1,061 | 54.1%1,250 | Yes +8.2 |
| Nov 6, 11:03 PM | Los Angeles | LAVote | 97,119 | 70.3%68,304 | 29.7%28,815 | No +40.7 |
| Nov 6, 8:45 PM | Lassen | SOS | 1,043 | 36.0%376 | 64.0%667 | Yes +27.9 |
| Nov 6, 7:35 PM | San Benito | County site | 2,470 | 57.4%1,417 | 42.6%1,053 | No +14.7 |
| Nov 6, 7:29 PM | Solano | LiveVoterTurnout | 9,846 | 64.1%6,310 | 35.9%3,536 | No +28.2 |
| Nov 6, 6:00 PM | Ventura | Clarity | 15,184 | 54.5%8,272 | 45.5%6,912 | No +9.0 |
| Nov 6, 5:58 PM | Calaveras | County site | 4,417 | 39.9%1,764 | 60.1%2,653 | Yes +20.1 |
| Nov 6, 5:48 PM | San Diego | LiveVoterTurnout | 67,817 | 58.3%39,562 | 41.7%28,255 | No +16.7 |
| Nov 6, 5:46 PM | San Bernardino | LiveVoterTurnout | 53,589 | 52.5%28,143 | 47.5%25,446 | No +5.0 |
| Nov 6, 5:46 PM | Tuolumne | SOS | 4,645 | 40.8%1,895 | 59.2%2,750 | Yes +18.4 |
| Nov 6, 5:32 PM | Alameda | County site | 112,592 | 73.8%83,045 | 26.2%29,547 | No +47.5 |
| Nov 6, 5:20 PM | Riverside | LiveVoterTurnout | 44,045 | 52.5%23,131 | 47.5%20,914 | No +5.0 |
| Nov 6, 5:16 PM | San Joaquin | SOS | 43,831 | 56.5%24,768 | 43.5%19,063 | No +13.0 |
| Nov 6, 5:08 PM | Santa Clara | Clarity | 37,733 | 59.8%22,567 | 40.2%15,166 | No +19.6 |
| Nov 6, 5:00 PM | Yolo | County site | 9,641 | 66.3%6,396 | 33.7%3,245 | No +32.7 |
| Nov 6, 5:00 PM | Orange | LiveVoterTurnout | 56,152 | 51.5%28,896 | 48.5%27,256 | No +2.9 |
| Nov 6, 4:52 PM | Monterey | County site | 10,030 | 65.3%6,549 | 34.7%3,481 | No +30.6 |
Sources: LiveVoterTurnout is the county's results site on LiveVoterTurnout; SOS is the Secretary of State's results feed; Clarity is the county's results site on Clarity; LAVote is Los Angeles County's results site; County site is the county's own results feed or report.