Insurance Commissioner — Outstanding Ballot Estimates

Based on data as of 2026-11-07

Projection method

Remaining ballots are projected with a poll-calibrated demographic model: each candidate's support rate by demographic is applied to the estimated remaining-ballot pool — which is sized from the official CA SOS unprocessed count where available and otherwise falls back to the selected voter universe — then scaled by each county's contest participation so projected vote counts reflect undervotes. Projected shares are the reliable signal; projected counts sit below projected turnout by the undervote. Coverage cases (A/B/C/D) reflect the PRET demographic data available per county. Switch the dashboard's Recent trend option to project remaining ballots by each county's recent counting momentum instead of the demographic model.

Projected Finals (SOS Outstanding Ballots)

pool: 3,134,538 · full breakdown →

Jane Kim(D)

6,188,630

53.5% ± 1.2

+1,449,854 est.

Ben Allen(D)

5,374,686

46.5% ± 1.2

+1,234,169 est.

Projected margin Kim +7.0 ± 1.7 pts · lead exceeds band · ~90% interval

County	Outstanding	% Counted	Jane Kim(D)(SOS · blend)	Ben Allen(D)	Method
San Diego	403,544	68.7%	581,925	472,137	Weights
Riverside	355,152	57.3%	347,514	345,956	Weights
Sacramento	241,111	55.1%	298,291	238,193	PRET full
Santa Clara	216,968	66.9%	300,642	271,146	Weights
Los Angeles	179,924	94.4%	1,559,149	1,225,183	Weights
Orange	167,920	85.7%	459,266	496,187	Weights
Alameda	148,090	74.5%	280,394	237,401	Weights
Ventura	145,391	60.6%	138,363	169,412	Weights
Kern	120,264	49.2%	130,096	106,657	PRET full
Fresno	102,900	61.8%	126,436	94,252	Weights
Sonoma	102,033	51.4%	91,470	92,471	PRET full
San Mateo	100,000	64.2%	141,097	103,737	Weights
Contra Costa	69,550	84.6%	194,760	185,867	Weights
Marin	62,770	52.6%	48,887	64,843	PRET full
Santa Barbara	61,745	61.9%	74,037	61,893	Weights
Stanislaus	59,887	62.7%	64,110	63,491	Weights
Placer	59,706	70.4%	77,723	76,526	PRET partial
Tulare	55,133	58.7%	58,485	50,182	Weights
San Luis Obispo	54,407	59.6%	50,089	56,051	Weights
San Joaquin	44,185	79.1%	103,600	74,836	Weights
San Bernardino	33,881	94.3%	281,905	223,412	Weights
Napa	30,546	44.4%	21,801	24,637	PRET full
Monterey	28,122	78.1%	56,154	56,813	Weights
Shasta	26,047	59.2%	24,432	22,569	PRET partial
Yolo	24,639	69.7%	38,573	31,634	Weights
Merced	24,548	67.1%	36,931	25,129	Weights
Humboldt	24,463	50.9%	22,996	19,123	PRET partial
Butte	20,269	74.6%	35,363	27,682	Weights
Santa Cruz	18,266	84.5%	54,469	48,534	Weights
Madera	17,837	62.4%	20,379	16,920	PRET partial
Sutter	16,130	50.7%	14,227	11,219	PRET partial
Nevada	15,300	71.5%	22,364	24,396	Weights
Mendocino	14,749	54.4%	15,249	11,922	PRET full
El Dorado	14,677	84.6%	37,779	31,495	Weights
Lake	14,167	35.4%	7,979	9,477	PRET full
San Francisco	13,050	96.2%	165,636	142,775	Weights
San Benito	10,380	55.7%	11,641	8,507	Weights
Imperial	10,239	73.8%	17,142	16,749	Weights
Solano	10,153	93.5%	82,570	53,796	Weights
Tehama	4,106	80.7%	8,262	7,715	Weights
Glenn	3,537	61.3%	3,599	3,495	Weights
Kings	1,780	94.9%	16,569	11,836	Weights
Yuba	1,494	93.9%	10,791	7,714	Weights
Del Norte	1,366	83.9%	3,085	3,217	Weights
Siskiyou	902	94.8%	7,277	5,640	Weights
Modoc	766	76.2%	1,144	1,051	Weights
Colusa	747	85.5%	1,998	1,853	Weights
Calaveras	342	98.4%	8,280	7,516	Weights
Lassen	289	96.8%	3,417	2,764	Weights
Trinity	233	95.1%	2,196	1,541	Weights
Mariposa	197	97.5%	3,158	2,699	Weights
Tuolumne	193	99.2%	8,182	10,594	Weights
Inyo	153	98.0%	2,787	2,661	Weights
Mono	145	97.2%	2,073	1,933	Weights
Plumas	125	98.5%	3,504	2,688	PRET partial
Alpine	19	96.8%	246	223	Weights
Sierra	1	99.9%	546	554	PRET partial
Amador	0	100.0%	7,592	5,782	Weights