Insurance Commissioner — Head to Head
Based on data as of 2026-11-07 · General mode
1st vs 2nd
Kim(D) favoredJane Kim(D)
53.4%
4,738,776 votes now
→ 53.5% proj · 6,188,630
vs
Ben Allen(D)
46.6%
4,140,517 votes now
→ 46.5% proj · 5,374,686
Current gap
598,259 votes
Projected remaining
2,684,023 votes
Allen(D) must net
+22.3% of remaining
Recent-trend net (model)
-9.5%
Projected margin
Kim(D) +7.0 ± 1.7 pts
Falling short: in the projection Allen(D) nets -8.0% of the remaining vote (-215,685), below the +22.3% needed — 813,944 votes short.
What the count added · to Nov 7, 5:53 PM PT
| Window | Votes | Kim(D) | Allen(D) | Allen(D) net |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Latest update1 county | 69,760 | 59.6% | 40.4% | -13,410-19.2% |
| Last hour3 counties | 121,645 | 57.7% | 42.3% | -18,681-15.4% |
| Last 24 hours13 counties | 481,571 | 59.2% | 40.8% | -88,259-18.3% |
| All counted | 8,879,293 | 53.4% | 46.6% | -598,259-6.7% |
Net share is Allen's votes minus Kim's, as a share of the window's votes. Green when it meets the +22.3% Allen needs on the remaining vote.
Path to catch up
What Allen needs from the remaining vote to overtake Kim.
Allen trails by 598,259; nets -215,685 from the remaining vote in the projection — short by 813,944 votes. Allocated below.
Allocate byby remaining x headroom to 62% (Allen's best county, 57%, plus 5 pts)
| County | Est. remaining | Proj. net (Allen) | Req. add’l votes | Req. add’l margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego | 403,544 | -48,402 | +119,315 | +29.6 pts |
| Sacramento | 241,111 | -30,141 | +74,944 | +31.1 pts |
| Riverside | 355,152 | -5,220 | +74,649 | +21.0 pts |
| Los Angeles | 179,924 | -31,722 | +58,143 | +32.3 pts |
| Santa Clara | 216,968 | -13,468 | +55,695 | +25.7 pts |
| Alameda | 148,090 | -16,477 | +41,628 | +28.1 pts |
| Kern | 120,264 | -11,906 | +37,117 | +30.9 pts |
| Fresno | 102,900 | -12,283 | +36,141 | +35.1 pts |
| San Mateo | 100,000 | -14,299 | +35,197 | +35.2 pts |
| Orange | 167,920 | -2,778 | +29,296 | +17.4 pts |
| Sonoma | 102,033 | +486 | +21,796 | +21.4 pts |
| Santa Barbara | 61,745 | -4,621 | +18,513 | +30.0 pts |
| Contra Costa | 69,550 | -4,610 | +16,044 | +23.1 pts |
| Ventura | 145,391 | +8,711 | +15,949 | +11.0 pts |
| San Joaquin | 44,185 | -6,955 | +15,867 | +35.9 pts |
| Tulare | 55,133 | -4,322 | +15,182 | +27.5 pts |
| Stanislaus | 59,887 | -231 | +13,354 | +22.3 pts |
| Placer | 59,706 | -1,361 | +12,968 | +21.7 pts |
| San Bernardino | 33,881 | -4,328 | +10,908 | +32.2 pts |
| Merced | 24,548 | -4,010 | +9,543 | +38.9 pts |
| San Luis Obispo | 54,407 | +2,577 | +9,242 | +17.0 pts |
| Humboldt | 24,463 | -1,900 | +7,393 | +30.2 pts |
| Yolo | 24,639 | -2,730 | +7,313 | +29.7 pts |
| Shasta | 26,047 | -216 | +7,095 | +27.2 pts |
| Butte | 20,269 | -1,949 | +6,677 | +32.9 pts |
| Marin | 62,770 | +7,568 | +5,710 | +9.1 pts |
| Monterey | 28,122 | -1,202 | +5,607 | +19.9 pts |
| Sutter | 16,130 | -1,326 | +5,438 | +33.7 pts |
| Madera | 17,837 | -1,300 | +5,403 | +30.3 pts |
| Mendocino | 14,749 | -1,517 | +4,866 | +33.0 pts |
| Santa Cruz | 18,266 | -1,802 | +4,782 | +26.2 pts |
| Napa | 30,546 | +1,330 | +4,645 | +15.2 pts |
| El Dorado | 14,677 | -657 | +4,490 | +30.6 pts |
| Solano | 10,153 | -2,180 | +4,146 | +40.8 pts |
| San Benito | 10,380 | -1,269 | +3,839 | +37.0 pts |
| San Francisco | 13,050 | -1,262 | +3,716 | +28.5 pts |
| Nevada | 15,300 | +282 | +2,616 | +17.1 pts |
| Imperial | 10,239 | -353 | +2,253 | +22.0 pts |
| Lake | 14,167 | +968 | +1,991 | +14.1 pts |
| Tehama | 4,106 | -106 | +1,025 | +25.0 pts |
| Glenn | 3,537 | -40 | +820 | +23.2 pts |
| Kings | 1,780 | -242 | +659 | +37.0 pts |
| Yuba | 1,494 | -197 | +552 | +36.9 pts |
| Siskiyou | 902 | -76 | +302 | +33.5 pts |
| Del Norte | 1,366 | -26 | +261 | +19.1 pts |
| Modoc | 766 | -22 | +197 | +25.7 pts |
| Colusa | 747 | -21 | +189 | +25.3 pts |
| Lassen | 289 | -21 | +91 | +31.5 pts |
| Calaveras | 342 | -13 | +90 | +26.3 pts |
| Trinity | 233 | -37 | +88 | +37.7 pts |
| Mariposa | 197 | -11 | +57 | +29.0 pts |
| Plumas | 125 | -12 | +42 | +33.8 pts |
| Inyo | 153 | -2 | +37 | +24.0 pts |
| Mono | 145 | -4 | +36 | +25.0 pts |
| Tuolumne | 193 | +20 | +20 | +10.2 pts |
| Alpine | 19 | +0 | +5 | +26.5 pts |
| Sierra | 1 | +0 | +0 | +21.2 pts |
Proj. net is the projection's split of each county's remaining vote, as in the projected totals; the required lift is what Allen needs beyond it. Scenario, not a forecast — the lift depends on the movability assumption. All counties with remaining vote; scroll and sort by any column.
Where the remaining vote is
Counties with remaining ballots, with the current and blend-projected vote margin (leader − challenger) for each matchup. A negative margin in a high-remaining county is where the trailing candidate can gain. Click any column to sort.
| County | Est. remaining | Kim–Allen | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Now | Proj. | ||
| San Diego | 403,544 | +61,386 | +109,788 |
| Riverside | 355,152 | -3,662 | +1,558 |
| Sacramento | 241,111 | +29,957 | +60,098 |
| Santa Clara | 216,968 | +16,028 | +29,496 |
| Los Angeles | 179,924 | +302,244 | +333,966 |
| Orange | 167,920 | -39,699 | -36,921 |
| Alameda | 148,090 | +26,516 | +42,993 |
| Ventura | 145,391 | -22,338 | -31,049 |
| Kern | 120,264 | +11,533 | +23,439 |
| Fresno | 102,900 | +19,901 | +32,184 |
| Sonoma | 102,033 | -515 | -1,001 |
| San Mateo | 100,000 | +23,061 | +37,360 |
| Contra Costa | 69,550 | +4,283 | +8,893 |
| Marin | 62,770 | -8,388 | -15,956 |
| Santa Barbara | 61,745 | +7,523 | +12,144 |
| Stanislaus | 59,887 | +388 | +619 |
| Placer | 59,706 | -164 | +1,197 |
| Tulare | 55,133 | +3,981 | +8,303 |
| San Luis Obispo | 54,407 | -3,385 | -5,962 |
| San Joaquin | 44,185 | +21,809 | +28,764 |
| San Bernardino | 33,881 | +54,165 | +58,493 |
| Napa | 30,546 | -1,506 | -2,836 |
| Monterey | 28,122 | -1,861 | -659 |
| Shasta | 26,047 | +1,647 | +1,863 |
| Yolo | 24,639 | +4,209 | +6,939 |
| Merced | 24,548 | +7,792 | +11,802 |
| Humboldt | 24,463 | +1,973 | +3,873 |
| Butte | 20,269 | +5,732 | +7,681 |
| Santa Cruz | 18,266 | +4,133 | +5,935 |
| Madera | 17,837 | +2,159 | +3,459 |
| Sutter | 16,130 | +1,682 | +3,008 |
| Nevada | 15,300 | -1,750 | -2,032 |
| Mendocino | 14,749 | +1,810 | +3,327 |
| El Dorado | 14,677 | +5,627 | +6,284 |
| Lake | 14,167 | -530 | -1,498 |
| San Francisco | 13,050 | +21,599 | +22,861 |
| San Benito | 10,380 | +1,865 | +3,134 |
| Imperial | 10,239 | +40 | +393 |
| Solano | 10,153 | +26,594 | +28,774 |
| Tehama | 4,106 | +441 | +547 |
| Glenn | 3,537 | +64 | +104 |
| Kings | 1,780 | +4,491 | +4,733 |
| Yuba | 1,494 | +2,880 | +3,077 |
| Del Norte | 1,366 | -158 | -132 |
| Siskiyou | 902 | +1,561 | +1,637 |
| Modoc | 766 | +71 | +93 |
| Colusa | 747 | +124 | +145 |
| Calaveras | 342 | +751 | +764 |
| Lassen | 289 | +632 | +653 |
| Trinity | 233 | +618 | +655 |
| Mariposa | 197 | +448 | +459 |
| Tuolumne | 193 | -2,392 | -2,412 |
| Inyo | 153 | +124 | +126 |
| Mono | 145 | +136 | +140 |
| Plumas | 125 | +804 | +816 |
| Alpine | 19 | +23 | +23 |
| Sierra | 1 | -8 | -8 |
County updates
Each county release, newest first: where it was read, the votes it added and each side's share of them. A county's first row is its first release; negative votes are a correction.
| Time (PT) | County | Source | Votes added | Kim(D) | Allen(D) | Went to |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7, 5:53 PM | San Bernardino | LiveVoterTurnout | 69,760 | 59.6%41,585 | 40.4%28,175 | Kim(D) +19.2 |
| Nov 7, 5:47 PM | Yuba | SOS | 8,734 | 58.5%5,113 | 41.5%3,621 | Kim(D) +17.1 |
| Nov 7, 5:01 PM | Orange | LiveVoterTurnout | 43,151 | 54.4%23,465 | 45.6%19,686 | Kim(D) +8.8 |
| Nov 7, 4:53 PM | Santa Clara | Clarity | 33,435 | 54.1%18,087 | 45.9%15,348 | Kim(D) +8.2 |
| Nov 7, 4:43 PM | Los Angeles | LAVote | 150,442 | 62.2%93,573 | 37.8%56,869 | Kim(D) +24.4 |
| Nov 7, 4:31 PM | Riverside | LiveVoterTurnout | 25,178 | 51.4%12,946 | 48.6%12,232 | Kim(D) +2.8 |
| Nov 7, 4:05 PM | Santa Cruz | County site | 9,322 | 57.1%5,321 | 42.9%4,001 | Kim(D) +14.2 |
| Nov 7, 4:01 PM | San Francisco | County site | 21,604 | 56.9%12,303 | 43.1%9,301 | Kim(D) +13.9 |
| Nov 6, 11:46 PM | Yuba | SOS | 1,844 | 60.4%1,113 | 39.6%731 | Kim(D) +20.7 |
| Nov 6, 11:03 PM | Los Angeles | LAVote | 89,526 | 62.6%56,027 | 37.4%33,499 | Kim(D) +25.2 |
| Nov 6, 8:45 PM | Lassen | SOS | 751 | 51.8%389 | 48.2%362 | Kim(D) +3.6 |
| Nov 6, 7:35 PM | San Benito | County site | 2,172 | 56.6%1,229 | 43.4%943 | Kim(D) +13.2 |
| Nov 6, 7:29 PM | Solano | LiveVoterTurnout | 9,076 | 63.0%5,721 | 37.0%3,355 | Kim(D) +26.1 |
| Nov 6, 6:00 PM | Ventura | Clarity | 13,205 | 47.4%6,263 | 52.6%6,942 | Allen(D) +5.1 |
| Nov 6, 5:58 PM | Calaveras | County site | 3,371 | 52.8%1,780 | 47.2%1,591 | Kim(D) +5.6 |
| Nov 6, 5:48 PM | San Diego | LiveVoterTurnout | 58,706 | 58.7%34,441 | 41.3%24,265 | Kim(D) +17.3 |
| Nov 6, 5:46 PM | San Bernardino | LiveVoterTurnout | 46,205 | 56.4%26,041 | 43.6%20,164 | Kim(D) +12.7 |
| Nov 6, 5:46 PM | Tuolumne | SOS | 3,770 | 43.6%1,645 | 56.4%2,125 | Allen(D) +12.7 |
| Nov 6, 5:32 PM | Alameda | County site | 105,415 | 57.4%60,552 | 42.6%44,863 | Kim(D) +14.9 |
| Nov 6, 5:20 PM | Riverside | LiveVoterTurnout | 38,412 | 51.5%19,775 | 48.5%18,637 | Kim(D) +3.0 |
| Nov 6, 5:16 PM | San Joaquin | SOS | 39,339 | 60.0%23,609 | 40.0%15,730 | Kim(D) +20.0 |
| Nov 6, 5:08 PM | Santa Clara | Clarity | 34,678 | 54.3%18,818 | 45.7%15,860 | Kim(D) +8.5 |
| Nov 6, 5:00 PM | Yolo | County site | 8,650 | 57.3%4,959 | 42.7%3,691 | Kim(D) +14.7 |
| Nov 6, 5:00 PM | Orange | LiveVoterTurnout | 48,335 | 50.8%24,556 | 49.2%23,779 | Kim(D) +1.6 |
| Nov 6, 4:52 PM | Monterey | County site | 9,253 | 53.9%4,990 | 46.1%4,263 | Kim(D) +7.9 |
Sources: LiveVoterTurnout is the county's results site on LiveVoterTurnout; SOS is the Secretary of State's results feed; Clarity is the county's results site on Clarity; LAVote is Los Angeles County's results site; County site is the county's own results feed or report.